Western Maine Weather

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Snow Sunday and again Monday night, and about that cold late week

Pardon me for taking a break on Friday. A touch of illness and a whole lot of being worn out from the recent stretch of weather got to me and I needed to take care of myself. Given the number of balls I am juggling with life, I need to step back at times in order to stay sharp and deliver my best effort here. My focus through the winter here is on storms and impact weather. The day-to-day forecasting of chasing cloud cover and mountain snow showers is not my thing as a single man operation. Seeing the teams of people on television and in the National Weather Service offices, I am amazed that I pull it off as well as I do. In some cases, I don’t do so well, but usually I am not alone in that regard. The atmosphere is a lot bigger than me, but the journey of the past 11 years of doing this has been incredible, and I thank you for giving me an opportunity to serve you.

Watching the cold minion to the north

Saturday 7 PM to next Sunday 7 PM – The cold to the north has been bottled up over Hudson Bay for several days now. It’s been blocked all around from going too far given all the ridging around the Northern Hemisphere. This is the “polar vortex” which is an accurate meteorological term that unfortunately some media outlets have hijacked and used as a scare tactic for headlines and clickbait internet stories. Given the strong ridging containing it, it does appear to uncork a bit over the northeast United States and Eastern Canada, but this isn’t a stratospheric warming event that will unload the cold to create a Hoth like experience for days on end, but it doesn’t appear to go too far southeast for too long. I’ll get into the late week cold later in the post.

Overall, a relatively boring upper-level pattern is in store once we get through a couple waves, the first on Sunday, and then the next one Monday night, and then a deeper trough comes in late week.

A bit of everything on the way for Sunday

Sunday 8 AM to Monday 3 AM – A weak area of low pressure passes to the northwest in a classic inside runner track, but with the cold air in place from Saturday night’s cold frontal passage, the temperatures stay cold enough for snow. Another cold front moves in to sweep the precipitation out of the region Sunday evening. Ahead of it, a gusty southwest wind flow develops and brings rain showers to the coastal plain, a bit of a mix over the foothills, and snow for the mountains and north.

For most areas, this is a nuisance event. It will be enough to scrape and salt for the western foothills up into southern Aroostook. The ski hills and the north will pick up some good fluff out of this. The Liquid equivalent with this will push one-third of an inch where snow is expected to accumulate the most. The taller peaks of the ski hills and Katahdin may pick up 8-10″ out of it with the serious fluff factor being the key contributor as higher ratio snow event.

Statewide snow Monday night into Tuesday morning

Monday 1 PM to Tuesday 10 AM – An upper-level trough dips down from the northwest and picks up some juice from the Great Lakes and brings some snow to the area. I think the evening commute on Monday should be mainly snow free in the usual 3-6 PM window over the south. Third shifters are likely to be driving into it during the overnight. Another nuisance event here as a general 1-3″ is expected out of this one across the state, with all areas seeing accumulations to deal with to start Tuesday morning. Expect some slick spots to start off, but improvement on the roads should occur as the morning progresses.

About the cold late week

Everyone knows it is February, right? Sometimes I am puzzled by people’s reactions when you tell them it is going to get cold. It’s supposed to be cold this time of year. The state has been spoiled with well above normal temperatures all winter.

I am looking at the ensemble range of high and low temperatures for Portland on Saturday when it is expected to be the coldest. No question it could be the coldest night of the season thus far. It’s about three weeks late getting here. As you can see, it’s a one hit wonder. We’ll have one day of cold and by Monday morning it will be long forgotten. If you have cold sensitive water pipes, you’ll want to make sure they stay warm, but this isn’t going to last long.

Another point to note on this chart is the range of temperatures indicated by the gray boxes and the whiskers that go above and below each.

A bit of a climatology lesson here…

Going through the history of February 4th through all the data that I could dig up where I could present some idea of the pattern brought me to 1971. Outside of the deep trough to the west that was going on, the area east of the Mississippi is pretty much in line with the ridge. The actual ridge of 1971 was a bit further east than what is being predicted here.

For those that have followed me for a while know that I go on an occasional rant in winter because models tend to move deep cold too progressively. As cold as the air is over Hudson Bay it is like throwing a cinder block. Cold air is dense, often times it does not cooperate with model ideas (see also: cold air damming events). While I can see where this could be the coldest day of the season thus far (that is easy, we haven’t had that many) I don’t think it will be as cold as the European model (or others on the cold side) predict.

If I have done my homework correctly, the last time Portland recorded a complete 24-hour period below zero is January 15, 1957. The only other time in recorded history that occurred was before that on February 15, 1943. The chances of Portland staying below zero for the entire day is highly unlikely. Also, the ocean temperature is in the 40s, and that plays a big factor in this as well.

Climatologically speaking, it doesn’t make sense what the models are putting out right now.

So, what did the final almanac data look like for February 4, 1971?

Caribou: Low -30° / High +4°
Bangor: Low -26° / High +15°
Portland Low: -19° / High +13°

Of the three, Caribou has a legit chance of staying below zero on Saturday.

We’ll have one day of bitter temperatures. Make sure your pipes are ready to handle it.

Temperature outlook through Thursday

We are near the tail end of what is typically the coldest time of the year. The average high and low for Caribou for January 28 is 20° and 1°. For Portland, 32° and 15°. The cool down is on the way late week.

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Stay updated, stay on alert, and stay safe!

– Mike

NOTE: The forecast information depicted on this platform is for general information purposes only for the public and is not designed or intended for commercial use. For those seeking pinpoint weather information for business operations, you should use a private sector source. For information about where to find commercial forecasters to assist your business, please message me and I will be happy to help you.

Pine Tree Weather

Breaking down the storm on the way Wednesday night into Thursday

This is a complicated storm given the dynamics of the inside runner track. I know folks are trying to figure out how to attack clean-up for this storm, not to mention travel in it. If you missed the previous post on this from Tuesday evening as I try to break down this sloppy nightmare for most areas, you can click here to read it.

Keep in mind here as you are reading along here that the HRRR short term model idea that I am presenting is just one model idea. I am using estimations based off that model. It may not be exact. This is for general information purposes only.

I may ruffle a few feathers here by saying that the snowfall maps are pretty much useless south of Route 2 on over into eastern areas given the flip to rain that is going to occur. We’re going to get some snow for sure, but with rain coming in, it’s not about the amount of snow per se as it is the amount of slop that this storm will generate.

There is also the wind and temperature pieces in this. I’ve created a four-way split screen to walk through this.

Three-hour steps from midnight to noon Thursday

As of midnight Thursday, snowfall should have a good start over the interior with the warm front working in along the coast. The shoreline communities may pick up a couple inches of snow, but the general idea is that by midnight, it will flip to rain or be close to it. Snow will be dumping along the warm front on the cold northern side. I’ve seen ideas of 1-2″+ per hour, so it will make travel a dangerous task at that hour. The cold is locked in tight over the north, and a southeast wind flow is beginning to pick up.

In this set I’ve introduced the “SLOP ZONE” as that is where any snow on the ground turns to slop as rain takes over, which at this point may be hanging along the western foothills to near Bangor. The wind begins to pick up as the storm moves into upstate New York. Where snow is sticking at this point begins to become problematic. Roads may be impassable in areas due to the rapid accumulation of snow along the front.

For you early birds with the long commutes coming down from the foothills, you really need to be smart and alert with this one. Studded tires may not be enough here, and four-wheel drive may give you double the chance of getting into trouble.

By the time daylight begins to crack is also where the slop zone expands up to Route 2 and over through central and eastern areas, which could make the morning commute a dangerous affair. The low-level jet cranks at this point, bringing the greatest chance for power outages DownEast during this window. A solid foot of snow is likely by this point over the mountains and north, and the ski hills transition to a bit of a mix.

By mid-morning the low enters into the state near Rangeley. The ski hills may end with a bit of rain, but it won’t impact the frozen goodness much, if at all. Northern areas up around the Allagash will be buried by this point with a bit of a mix going on. Wind over DownEast areas is slowly diminishing, but still strong. Much of the state is sitting in the warm sector at this point with only The County in the 20s for temps at this time.

By midday, precipitation begins to taper off over the north as the slop zone moves into New Brunswick. With the storm crossing the crown of the state, winds settle over DownEast areas a bit more. A cold front approaches the region in the afternoon which brings in wind from the southwest out ahead of it which could be gusty at times through the afternoon. The mountains and north may pick up some snow showers as the front passes through in the afternoon into the evening.

Southwestern areas see the sun poke through the cloud cover late morning into the afternoon which will help clean up the roads, parking lots, driveways, and sidewalks.

Whatever is left for slush around Thursday night turns into cement by Friday morning.

Make sure your plow gear is in good shape. Also, if you have a snow blower, you have spare cotter pins and belts in case you need to switch those out. If you have to shovel this mess, please take your time. Have your phones charged and be ready for power outages.

This is my final website update on this storm. My Twitter will be active and may post on Facebook pending any changes. As always, stay in touch with the National Weather Service for the latest from them.

I hope this helps!

– Mike

Pine Tree Weather

Snow to mix to rain for Wedenesday night into Thursday

For the past couple of days I have been watching and seeing what has gone on and thought for January, this is sure acting like February. We usually get these lines of smacker storms as the change of seasons approach. With the trends I am seeing though, it’s actually more like the December we didn’t have. February looks cold, so keep that in mind.

Most of the state to get a good dump of snow, but…

I am going to lay all of the cards on the poker table in true Omaha poker style and say it’s these types of storms where it’s like going all in with a pair of 2s at the casino with an ace on the board and people are loading the pot, and you can’t fold since you are committed.

Follow along…

Timing

Wednesday 3 PM to Thursday 3 AM – Looking at the forecast for hourly precipitation amounts, the south starts off with snow, and as the warm front moves in, the transition begins to flip to rain. The rain could be heavy. Along the frontal boundary, snow could dump in 1-2″ per hour rates, which is where it will add up fast.

Where it rains, what snow has fallen is going to turn into a giant slushy. While I expect most areas are going to have slick roads to start off, the insult here is that once it flips to rain, and potential for heavy rain at that, it could miserable to move and/or drive in.

Thursday 3 AM to 3 PM – The transition to rain continues across the coastal plain and into eastern areas through the morning before most precipitation exits the region by early afternoon. The foothills and mountains may get a touch of sleet and/or freezing rain as a parting gift and may bring a bit of a crust, but it won’t ruin any skiing plans.

Precipitation type / wind

A lot of juice here for a later January storm. With the rise in temperatures and the amount of potential rain here that it may cause plugged storm drains, ponding on roadways and minor flooding from run off for the coastal plain, with more issues for the areas closest to the shorelines.

What makes this snowfall forecast extremely difficult to verify is the transition to rain happens when most folks are studying their eyelids. With heavy rain and rise in temperatures, it will compact and ooze like ice cream in a hot car in July. People could wake up over the south and the coast and say, “We were under winter storm warning (or advisory) for this!” and think forecasters should be committed to the nut hose. That is what makes this such a challenge.

The good news is in areas where it rains and temperatures rise into the 40s, Mother Nature may do a good amount of the clean up on her own. For those areas that get caught with say 6-8″ of snow and then get hit with rain that compacts that to slop, that will be a snow blower nightmare, not to mention heart attack level with the shovel. Just brutal.

Be advised that this will all freeze up Thursday night, so at some point you should clean it up.

The mountains will avoid the slop fest, so if you are planning on playing hooky to get some tracks on fresh powder, it’s game on. That has been consistent, and I feel good about that part of the forecast.

When the warm front passes through and flips snow to rain is when the low-level jet stream at 60-70 knots in conjunction with heavy rain is where the power outage threat may be highest. Where snow sticks to trees and powerlines, the wind could be problematic as well.

The coast appears to escape yet again from any issues with flooding. Good news.

Outlook through the weekend

Saturday 7 AM to Monday 7 AM – Finally after this run of punching storms, we get a bit of a break here. The mountains may get some snow shower activity on Saturday. For the first time in a while we just get a lazy frontal boundary that may bring snow showers to the north and rain showers to the south on Sunday.

After this, we’ll have to watch for the next potential in the middle part of next week.

– Mike

Pine Tree Weather

Snow on the way with a potential shoreline mix for Monday

Finally, some better agreement

Sometimes the old jukebox needs a good punch to get the song going, and thankfully the capture of the northern stream by guidance did its best impersonation of Arthur Fonzarelli. Consequently, a better forecast has come out if it, with still the risk of a couple potential surprises that may come out of it. We’ll give this a ‘thumbs up’ and get at it.

Fast and flat, with a bit of fun

Sunday 7 PM to Tuesday 2 AM – I show this loop to present two things.

First, the track is consistent from the overnight runs with a near benchmark 40° / 70° W south of Cape Cod to eastern Nova Scotia track. This favors more snow.

Second, watch as a sneaky backside low develops in the slipstream behind the parent low. That might make things interesting for southern Maine as the storm departs Monday evening.

Timing

Sunday 6 PM to Monday 6 AM – The I-95 / Route 1 corridor is where the atmospheric battle lines appear to be setting up. This is where the best forcing takes place, and where the most precipitation is likely to fall. The darker shades of blue are where the heaviest snow is expected and could fall upwards of an inch plus per hour.

The roads south of Moosehead Lake and Houlton are likely to be a mess to start the day.

Monday 6 AM to 6 PM – While the parent low races off for Newfoundland, the sneaky secondary low develops in its wake, and this is where it gets interesting. Areas along the coast that may have seen a mix of sleet and freezing rain, even some rain, are likely to transition to snow as gusty northwest wind brings in cold air behind it.

Folks along the I-95 / Route 1 corridor who had a rough start to get to work in the morning may have a harder time getting home in the evening.

Monday 6 PM to Tuesday 1 PM – The secondary low follows the parent low and heads off to the northeast, and thus precipitation ends from northwest to southeast Monday evening.

Snow and wind

The closer to the coast, the wetter the snow. This could be very problematic for areas that still have snow stuck on trees from the storm on Thursday IF temperatures stay below freezing and a developing breeze on Sunday does not clean things up ahead of this one. Even if Mother Nature does her job and tidies things up, the wet slop could still cause issues given the recent stress from the weight of the recent snow weakening tree limbs.

As far as bust potential goes, if the storm jogs 30 miles south of the forecast track, more snow and less mix is possible for the coast. If the coastal front and/or the secondary low really amps up higher than what is forecast now, some places may see upwards of a foot. The region from Fryeburg, Waterville, Bangor to Danforth south to the coast is where the confidence is lower on snowfall amounts given the situation, but this a reasonable idea for now.

As far as snow removal goes, in the areas of wet snow, it WILL turn to cement as the cold air drops all locations below freezing Monday evening.

While this is not a big wind event on the front end, it will be more of an issue on the back end. As snow sticks where it falls wet with the cold air coming in from the northwest to freeze it where it sits could cause the threat of power outages through Tuesday.

Folks along the coastal plain south from Fryeburg, Bangor, and Danforth south to the shorelines should prepare for outages. Charge your phones, back up batteries, draw water in the tub if you are on a well, and for those who have a generator, make sure that it is ready for use.

Lastly, the shorelines escape with some minor flooding and some splash over, with a half a foot of storm surge expected.

Coastal hugger potential for Wednesday into Thursday

A couple quick thoughts on this one. It looks like snow is to start off that will transition to rain for the southwest and east with sleet and freezing rain “junk” potential for the western mountains and foothills on up into northeast Aroostook. We’ll have to watch for potential flooding from snowmelt and keep watch on the shorelines as a southeast wind flow with the astronomical tides still a bit high may cause flooding issues there.

We’ll see if guidance behaves on this idea.

Stay tuned.

– Mike

Pine Tree Weather

Sunday / Monday storm to bring snow for the interior

The good news is we’ll be precipitation free over the weekend to have the chance to rest and reload. We’ll have this storm to contend with for the first of the week, then another Thursday, and then maybe next Saturday, but that’s too far ahead with very low confidence on that. We’ll deal with what is in the headlights for now, and that is this one coming up the first of the week.

The next one

I mentioned Thursday on Twitter and Friday on Facebook that model ideas were a bit nutty with this one, but I think at this point with the kicker energy in weather balloon sample area that we can start off with an idea and then narrow it down from there. The individual European ensembles still have a fair amount of play as you can see above, but those will consolidate by the Saturday morning 12z (7 AM) data run that comes public between 2-3 PM.

Sunday 1 PM to Tuesday 1 AM – Using the European ensemble mean run without precipitation type for track purposes. The idea right now is for the storm to cross the Cape Cod canal, enter the Gulf of Maine and punch Nova Scotia in the left eye and skirt the Bay of Fundy.

Worthy to note right off here that this is setting up to be a faster moving storm than models first thought, and it appears to develop rapidly as the storm is heading for the Canadian Maritimes. This is critical for the shorelines with the astronomically high tides. This delay of organization and quicker exit also has a ripple effect on the precipitation types and amounts.

For the shorelines, the blessing here is with the track the wind will stay in more northerly direction. If this were an inside runner like the Grinch Storm with wind out of the southeast, we’d be dealing with major issue. We’ll have splash-over and some minor flooding more than likely, but with the wind blowing offshore, that is a huge help. High tide is around noon, and this storm will be giving the southeast tip of Nova Scotia a shiner at that point. That is what you want if you have trouble in the neighborhood with astronomically high water marks.

I am going to get right out in front of this and say there is reasonable confidence of a strong coastal front that will work inland. Snow could dump on the cold side, with an area of mixing along the boundary, and rain to the south of it. The pickle here is how far inland it will go. The storm starts off at night, but with the 45° ocean water that is outrageously warm for January is going to feed warm air and moisture into that front.

I’ll make no bones about it, bust potential is high for places around Sanford, Lewiston, Augusta, Bangor and Calais, and I am not sure if the uncertainty around the coastal front will be resolved in future forecasts with this storm. Warm air is likely to intrude aloft from the south and then shift northeast as the storm approaches and as it passes southeast of the area Monday morning.

Wet snow is likely to be problematic here for power outage concerns. While the wind won’t be strong on the front end, it’s going to crank from the northwest as the departing storm intensifies on the way to Newfoundland.

I am also going mention I have seen ideas of bigger snowfall amounts in my Twitter feed. That may have been a valid case a day or two ago, but some have 12-18″ for the mountains. I pose this question… if the forecast liquid equivalent amount of ½” is what is expected there, the 12-18″ solution would be a 25:1 snow to liquid ratio, which with a -9°C (15°F) at the ideal snow growth level is about as a ridiculous an idea as I have seen. Remember the blizzards we had back in 2016? The cold in that one was 10°C colder than that in the snow growth level. Could places get a foot out this? It’s possible, but for now, that idea to me is isolated and not widespread. We’ll see if that changes, but idea is trending down and not up due to the acceleration of the storm.

I will update on this next Saturday afternoon.

Stay tuned!

Temperature outlook through Wednesday

Pine Tree Weather

Snow for Thursday night into Friday; high impact storm potential for Monday

The train is rolling

Things for your “to do” list: check the washer fluid in your car, make sure you have plenty of salt and sand stocked up, back pain medication, and have your storm supplies well stocked. While Old Man Winter has been relatively quiet around here outside of the recent sleet bomb and the parade of junk storms, he’s humming a tune and clearing his throat and is about to unload.

The appetizer comes Friday. The main course comes Monday. Then we’ll see if desert comes mid to late next week.

For the Facebook followers, if you have yet to turn on page notifications, I suggest you do. Click on the page and see the pinned post there. For my Twitter peeps, my latest update is pinned at the top of my profile page. Algorithms are a pain.

Friday’s storm

The ideas have shifted a bit north and the surface low intensity has bumped a couple millibars, so consequently there has been some changes.

Thursday 6 PM to Friday 6 AM – The idea that a good portion of the snow will be down over southwestern areas is still true. It will be a mess to start the day over the south. Bangor will just be getting into it as the sun comes up.

Friday 6 AM to Saturday Midnight – Snow is expected to continue through the morning and then gradually diminish from west to east late day into Friday evening. For snow removal folks, this may be annoying to you and make your day longer.

Snowfall amounts

With the bump northward, a wetter snow is expected. Closer to the coast, the stickier it gets. Hence the potential for some power outages. Where the snow sticks may stay stuck until Sunday as temperatures are expected to be below freezing over much of the southwest interior. Temperatures are expected warm up on Sunday for the coastal plain which -hopefully- gets most of this off the trees and power lines ahead of the storm on the way for Monday. That will be important.

The western ski hills will do well here with 6-10″ on the summits.

As far as bust potential, I fretted with this snowfall idea all afternoon as I was trying to sniff out a coastal front with guidance that could throw a wrench into this. The forecast storm track is virtually due east and south enough which limits the influence of the warm ocean for the most part. If the track moves a bit further north, then southern York County and the shorelines communities east of the Turnpike to Portland may end up in the 3-6″ range of slop. There could be a bit of sleet mixing in in that area, but most people will be in bed and may not even notice it when go out to clear it Friday morning. The wet snow will compact the wetter it is, and that may look like less has fallen. The melted down liquid involved here is in the 0.6-1″ range for the coast.

As always, where the banding sets up may bring bonus amounts. Where the banding misses would bring lesser amounts. If you get short changed on this one, Monday is coming.

I am not sure if this track done inching northward as of yet, so there may be some subtle tweaking to this.

Monday could be a corker

This one concerns me. This could be a high impact storm the way ideas are now. Astronomical tides will be at their peak, so the timing of this will be critical. I don’t see where the coast escapes without some sort of impact, it’s a question of how bad.

The kids in school may end up with a four day weekend where they cancel on Friday. This idea of potential for 6″ or more of snowfall shows a strong probability of that, which means 12+” amounts can’t be ruled out here. With a track in the Gulf of Maine, wet snow is a concern, along with wind, and potential for power outages.

Stay tuned!

Temperature outlook through Monday

– Mike

Pine Tree Weather

Light snow for the north Wednesday, a decent snow for the south Thursday night into Friday

A break from the junk storms… for now

The storm responsible for Monday’s mess of sleet and freezing rain spins around the Gulf of St. Lawrence through Wednesday. It’s a blessing in the way that is there as it blocks an upper level ridge moving in from the southwest. A system over the Great Lakes will bring a round of icy, sleety junk to eastern New York and Vermont Tuesday night into early Wednesday, and slips off to the southeast of the region and misses Maine. Energy over the southwest ejects northeastward, and that is the source for the next storm on the way Thursday night into Friday.

Light snow for northern areas,
isolated spotty mix or rain south for Wednesday

Wednesday 3 AM to 9 PM – As upper level energy pinwheels around the remnants of Monday’s storm, snow showers in light to moderate intensity are possible over the far north. While that is going on, a warm front associated with the upper level ridge sticks its nose in over the south and may bring light pockets of freezing rain, sleet, a snow shower or a straight rain shower.

Folks in the north may see 1-3″ of snow and may have a few slick spots. I don’t expect any travel issues in south of any concern.

Snow on the way Thursday night into Friday

Thursday 6 PM to Saturday 1 AM – This is a nocturnal event which is helpful to keep this mostly snow. Snow and perhaps a bit of a mix along the southwest and MidCoast areas breaks out Thursday night. The storm is rather flat and doesn’t begin to crank until it passes south of Nova Scotia Friday night. Most of the precipitation is down with this one by daylight Friday over the south and by mid-morning over the east. An inverted trough set up keeps periodic snow showers going through the day, and may not end until Friday night.

Since it is flat in nature, wind is not concern with this one. Some areas over the interior protected from the northeast breeze won’t get wind. Shorelines may push 30-35, with DownEast shorelines likely to record the higher end speeds.

For those with shoreline area concerns, I don’t expect any concerns with coastal flooding with this event. Seas in the 3-6′ range may bring some splash over, but that is typical with the astronomical tides on good day. We won’t experience anything like what was seen with the Grinch storm. We’ll dodge a bullet on this one.

The highest amounts are expected over the south. The southwest coastal shorelines are a bit of question with the coastal front which may bring a mix and keep totals down there. There is certain amount of fluff factor with this over interior areas so that might “add” to the total theoretically, but we’re talking roughly ¼ – ½”+ of water in frozen form here in the darker blues.

The day won’t be a total loss for travel. Outside of the snow showers that may add an inch or two in spots through Friday night which is factored into the totals above, it will be business as usual for Maine in January.

The train keeps rolling

Saturday 7 PM to Thursday 7 PM – Looking at the European ensemble mean here shows the pattern continuing to be active. The next storm comes in from the south which is a common track for “Miller A” type NorEaster which could impact the area the first of next week, along with a similar storm potential for Wednesday into Thursday.

Where the coast dodges a potential problem with the astronomical tides on Friday, the tides will at maximum highs on Monday.

Timing, intensity, impact, precipitation type all to be determined. For now, just know there is the chance.

Temperature outlook through Sunday

We are in the coldest part of the year climatologically speaking, but the temps are running warm. Caribou’s normal high and low for January 17th is 20° and 2°. For Portland, 32° and 15°. It appears at this point we could get into a below normal temperature pattern late in the month into early February. We’ll see.

– Mike

Pine Tree Weather

Major ice storm for Eastern Maine for MLK Day

This is a strong storm

I mentioned that the center of this storm is likely to have hurricane force wind gusts around the low and that is a good bet given this satellite image from Sunday afternoon. The greens, yellows, oranges, and reds here are indicating lightning strikes. Judging by the wind gusts between 20-45 mph across the region, for a storm well to the south, it has some muscle to it. The eye is well defined as can be seen below the lightning near the core. Impressive.

Timing

Sunday 9 PM to Monday 10 PM – While precipitation is occurring ahead of the start time here, the main point I wanted to capture here is the likelihood of waves of precipitation passing through the region in this time span. After the initial wave, precipitation is expected to taper off for a couple hours or more, then return heading into Monday afternoon and into the evening. Expect both the morning and evening commutes to be a slick affair in areas. Sleet and/or freezing rain may be falling in such velocity that it may be difficult for plow crews to keep up.

Monday 10 PM to Tuesday Noon – The storm heads to the northeast and the precipitation tapers off from west to east. By the time the Tuesday morning commute comes, most areas should be in good shape.

I say most because eastern and northern areas may be hurting.

Precipitation amounts, impacts

The outlook for eastern areas has gone from bad to worse with the ice potential. For those curious, to trigger an ice storm warning, the threshold is ¾” of flat ice as of the latest revision two years ago. For those in Hancock and Washington Counties, do not be surprised if one gets triggered at some point overnight.

This is a bad storm as I have been saying for the past few days. Trees and powerlines will go down. Roads will be impassable. Thankfully, warm air builds in for Tuesday and Wednesday to melt the ice, but by then the damage has already been done.

There could be folks without power for a week or more. The storm on the way for Friday won’t help in the restoration efforts, either.

Having all that ice buildup along with a stiff northeast breeze is no bueño. The weight of the ice and the wind will cause a lot of damage over eastern areas.

SLEET continues to be a concern along with the freezing rain eating away at snowfall amounts. This could bust on the low end in a lot of areas, but that won’t be determined until Tuesday morning.

As far as driving goes, a ½-1″ of sleet is greasier than 6-12″ of wet sloppy snow on the roads. Add freezing rain in with it… dangerous. The road crews are going to have more than enough to handle with this event, and they don’t need people in the spin cycle taking out their truck to make matters worse.

If you MUST drive in this storm, make sure you have blankets, water, and food. Make sure your phone is charged. If you go off the road, you may be sitting there for several hours or more.

Quick thoughts on Friday’s potential

No real surprise here to see the variance in ensemble ideas this far out. The consensus for now has most inside the benchmark “B” at 40° N / 70° W so that does raise some questions about snow for the shorelines for now.

Take this with a grain of salt for now, but this is good signal for a plowable snow statewide. We’ll see what happens as the week unfolds.

Heads up for the shorelines… astronomical high tides are going to be a concern with this storm. It’s too early to tell how much of a mess and abuse this may cause. The ideas will become clearer on that by Wednesday.

The winter train is rolling.

Temperature outlook through Friday

– Mike

Pine Tree Weather

Ice storm on the way for Eastern Maine

The junk storms continue to roll

For those faithful followers and donors in DownEast areas, your notice is short here and you need to get on the stick to prepare for this one NOW. Gas up your vehicles, get fuel for your generators if you have one, get food and supplies, charge batteries and buckle up. This is likely to be a bad storm for you. You could be without power for several days. Looking at what is coming in the pipeline, it would not surprise me to see some folks there without power for more than a week, if not longer.

For those located west of Penobscot Bay in the MidCoast, Capital District, and Bangor areas, you should prepare as well. It may not look to be “that bad” as compared to DownEast, but if trends continue to push west, you’ll get in on this mess also.

Everyone else needs to stay tuned as well. The forecast is very fluid and could change for the worse as it has for the past three days now.

Breaking it all down

The frontal boundary that has stalled offshore is in the process of going through rapid development. An inverted trough set up out ahead of it is going bring moisture in from the southeast. The parent low developing due south of Nova Scotia is expected to generate hurricane force gusts near its core, well away from Maine. It’s got a solid moisture hose attached to it, so it will have plenty of moisture to throw at the region.

All of that gibberish means we’re getting an offshore NorEaster.

Sunday Noon to Monday 11 AM – Folks up and down the coast can expect snow showers to break out in the afternoon. Heavier precipitation moves in overnight, bringing snow and sleet to the west and south, sleet and freezing rain for the east, and snow and sleet taking turns over the north. The bulk of the precipitation appears down by Monday morning for the south. but don’t hold me to that just yet.

Monday Noon to Tuesday Noon – The mixed mess continues over the west, east and north through Monday afternoon and begins to taper off Monday night into Tuesday morning, finally exiting by midday on Tuesday.

NOTE: This is subject to change.

DownEast areas are getting a full-on ice storm, and a bad one. Any shift in track to the west, which I will mention again is the trend, pushes all of this to the west also. Portland, Lewiston, Augusta… stay tuned. Bangor and Rockland… you could get more ice. Let’s hope the shift west is over.

SLEET is going to be an issue here across the region. If the thermodynamics hold up, there will be a lot of frozen buckshot falling from the sky, and if you go out into, you may want a helmet with ear plugs. It could be heavy. Nothing is more dangerous than driving or walking in sleet. Just brutal. Sleet busts snow totals, too, but this is fair estimate for now.

While wind is not expected to be an issue, it’s a BIG problem for DownEast areas with the freezing rain on the way. Anytime there is ½”+ of ice and wind 30-40 mph, it’s bad. The wind settles down Monday night. We’ll get a warmup Tuesday and Wednesday to get this ice off the trees and power lines, thankfully. That needs to happen with a potential storm on the way Friday.

Stay tuned… This may not be the final answer.

– Mike

Pine Tree Weather

Unsettled at times for coastal areas Saturday and Sunday, storm potential Monday

Welcome to silly season. Models are nutty. Our pattern is becoming more active. The ocean temperatures are warm in the low to mid 40s. Cold air is marginal. That means potential for more mixed precipitation / junk chances, at least through midweek. There is quite a bit of uncertainty given the traffic jam that is developing over the north Atlantic.

It will be important to pay close attention to the forecast as the outlook could change rather quickly, as it has here.

The general idea through Monday… subject to change

Saturday 1 AM to Tuesday 7 PM – This is the European ensemble mean outlook from Friday morning. Given the amount of variance with the deterministic models, this is the practical idea to share. This shows potential precipitation amounts, NOT precipitation type.

The system that moved through the region Friday is a part of a longwave frontal boundary that is on track to stall over the Canadian Maritimes through the start of the week. Areas of low pressure form along it, and with the blocking going on the north and east in conjunction with the cut-off upper low, will bring precipitation chances to the coast Saturday and Sunday, and potential for widespread light to moderate impacts for Martin Luther King, Jr. Day on Monday.

At the tail end of the loop, there is a clipper system on approach for Tuesday. Then there is another storm on tap for Friday. Silly season.

Potential for a light mixed bag event
for eastern areas Saturday

I will be right out front with this and say the bust on potential on this is rather high. A jog to the east by the surface low heading for Nova Scotia puts this idea in the trash can in a hurry. Conversely, a shift west puts southwestern areas into the ballgame. This a mean model idea here. Snow showers possible for MidCoast on up to Houlton, a potential for some junk over eastern Hancock and central Washington County, with rain possible for the folks Way DownEast.

I will update on this Saturday morning on Facebook.

Another close shave for Sunday

Using the European ensemble probability for potential here, the South Shore of Massachusetts could pick up as much as 3-4″ in spots. How close it comes to the shorelines of Maine is still to be determined. Folks around Penobscot Bay eastward have the best chance to get some accumulation snow, or perhaps a mix.

Stay tuned for more on this.

Monday may see more widespread precipitation

Hence where all of the uncertainty comes into play here. A mini-omega block anchored with a strong area of high pressure almost halfway across the pond puts the brakes on the cut-off upper-low. The upper-low is strong enough to spin up a strong area of low pressure north of Bermuda, and spin it shall.

The surface low in conjunction with the upper-low is suggested to spin moisture into the region from the southeast. This could be snow accumulation on the ground to start the day on Monday, and may bring a mixed bag to eastern areas. This is NOT a certainty as of yet, but there is some confidence of this happening, enough to put it on the discussion table.

Again, using the European ensemble probability of potential, it shows more of a widespread possibility for some light snowfall over a wider area of the state. This will be updated as well.

Did I say this was silly season? I think you may understand why now.

More to come on Saturday.

Temperature outlook through Wednesday

– Mike

Pine Tree Weather

Snow, light ice, and rain for Maine to wrap up the week

Plan on slick travel starting Thursday

The Winter Storm Severity Index issued by the Weather Prediction Center shows minor to moderate impacts for interior areas of Maine as travel is expected to be tricky at times until conditions warm up above freezing. For those on the roads, allow for plenty of extra time to reach you destination(s) and plan accordingly.

A Winter Weather Advisory is posted away from the immediate coast over southwestern areas, and for southern Piscataquis, central Penobscot, and northern Washington Counties. A Winter Storm Watch is posted for the northern tier.

If you think the ideas have trended cooler, that is correct, especially over the north.

Timing, precipitation type, and wind

For those that read yesterday’s update will remember that I had concerns about model ideas handling the freezing rain aspect of the storm. I have been patiently waiting for guidance to catch on and it is starting to. The trend is a bit cooler due to the fact the wind from the southeast is a bit slower to move in due to a slightly weaker system.

Thursday 1 PM to Friday 1 AM – Areas of ocean effect snow showers are possible over the shorelines Thursday morning. As we head into the afternoon, snow picks up with intensity as the storm tracks northeastward. As the wind begins to pick up out of the southeast, it begins to push warm air inland.

The signatures of cold air damming are duly noted with the isobars indicating barometric pressure with the southwest direction. This is where it gets interesting heading into Thursday night as the coastal front runs up against it and may create areas of wet snow and slop along it which may accumulate an inch or two over the MidCoast and points along the DownEast shorelines before flipping to rain as warm air gets superiority.

Areas of sleet and freezing rain are also expected as the atmosphere becomes rather constipated with the battle between the cold and warm air. Precipitation becomes heavier as the hose of moisture streams into southern areas Thursday night.

As far as junk storms (mixed precipitation) go, this isn’t as junky as we’ve seen lately, which doesn’t offend anyone.

Friday 1 AM to Friday 1 PM – Heading into Friday morning is when the forecast becomes a bit tricky. The warm air continues to surge inland, but the cold air at the surface won’t go away without a fight. It will lose eventually as the storm tracks into the Eastern Townships of Quebec which with a moderate low level jet will be strong enough to wash the stubborn cold out.

The question I continue to have is when that is going to happen. For those in the western foothills and the mountains, it may be mid to late morning before the change comes. Those in well protected areas from the southeast wind (north and west of the Bigelow’s, Rangeley area) may see freezing rain hang on longer.

As the storm continues to the northeast, areas seeing snow may get a bit of a mix before changing to rain. Heavier precipitation ends Friday afternoon with pockets of light rain showers and drizzle over the south, east, and west, and Friday evening over the north. The cold front passes through will perhaps a rain and/or snow shower, but exits with little fanfare.

Temperatures are expect to slowly fall Friday night. I am not expecting any flash freezing concerns, but there could be some icy spots Saturday morning where puddles and areas of standing water freeze up.

More cold hanging on in the north means more snow there. The higher elevation ski hills get out of this in the plus column with little impact from rain or melting. Friday will be a fun day on the slopes. For those curious, Katahdin may get upwards of two feet of snow out of this.

Ice isn’t going to be a big deal, and with the rise in temperatures, it will melt. Well protected areas may get upwards of a tenth of an inch, maybe a bit more, before the warm air arrives.

The wind idea remains the same. MidCoast areas from Phippsburg to Eastport may see gusts in the 40-50 mph range. The mountains, southwest coast and coastal interior areas may see peak wind in the 30-40 mph range. For most areas of the interior, 20-30 mph is the max. Where the wind is strongest is where the threat for power outages come, and that for now appears minimal.

Folks over interior areas that see snow sticking to trees and power lines should stay mindful that as the temperature increases that the frozen precipitation will melt off. The peak winds will have passed by 1-3 PM Friday west of Penobscot Bay and by 7-10 PM for eastern areas.

Flooding concerns are minimal with this event. There may be some localized run off that may bring areas of standing water and minor flooding in poor drainage areas due to the ground being frozen.

The shorelines escape without too much issues. Seas are expected to reach the 7-10 foot range in exposed areas. High tide is in the 3 PM Friday timeframe and may bring some splash-over and some minor erosion, and that is about it.

Temperature and outlook through Monday

High pressure moves in for Saturday and dominates the pattern through Monday, with most areas void of precipitation. The next chance for precipitation comes Tuesday, and may come in the form of a backdoor cold front as a traffic jam develops over the Atlantic to the east.

– Mike

Pine Tree Weather

Inside runner storm on the way late week

But first, a bit of winter

You remember winter, right? As a refresher, part of it is bitter cold air that freezes up the mucus membranes when you first step out of the house in the morning. This is what you are going to get in the morning. This is one of the rare occurrences where you might want to toss an extra log in the stove and grab an extra blanket for the bed. Actual temperatures will be a bit warmer, but a slight breeze will give the air an extra snap. We’ll have a day of below normal cold ahead of a whiplash temperature storm for the rest of the week.

Oh, and for those snow lovers who are depressed at what winter has been like so far, I might paint a smile on your face by the time this update is over. Let’s just get through the storm on the way, first.

As far as inside runner storms go, this isn’t bad

Thursday 4 AM to Friday 7 PM – Unlike the fire hose storms that brought big rain, wind and coastal calamity leading up to Christmas, this one is pretty tame in comparison. While I do expect some freezing rain over the interior to come with this, it’s not as junk ridden as ideas once were over the weekend.

Some light snow is expected on Thursday, but the main slug of moisture arrives Thursday night along with a surge in temperatures, and continues into Friday, then tapers off from southwest to northeast Friday night.

I do expect a period of snow for the interior along with light ice over the foothills and central part of the state before the flip to rain heading into Friday morning.

I will say that the idea of cold air damming certainly has my attention, and it is something I will monitor closely over the next couple of days. That area of high pressure over the north is where a certain amount of uncertainty comes into play as far as how much ice comes out of this. If this was a Gulf of Maine tracked event, it would be a big concern. With the south/southeast flow working in as a result of the track closer to the St. Lawrence River and a juicy low-level jet feeding into it, it is just a matter of time before the cold at the surface gets scrubbed out.

Expect and icy and slick conditions for the foothills and western mountains Thursday night into Friday morning, and stay tuned for a better read on when the flip to rain comes.

Northern areas hold onto the cold the longest, and thus are the snowiest.

What little snow that is around along the coast is going away with the rain that is on the way. The good news here for the taller ski hills is they may get out of this with little impact on the base, and may sneak out a net positive by the time this is over. Temperatures are likely to warm up for the mountains, but the dew points may hold below 40° for the duration of the above freezing period (roughly 30 hours), which is what you are looking for to minimalize the snow melt. Time will tell if that idea changes, but at this point, it doesn’t look too bad.

The river levels look good to handle any runoff that may come. The shorelines should be alright as astronomical high tides won’t be an issue. There may be some minor nuisance flooding for DownEast areas, but that is about it.

Wind concerns overall appear minor. The strongest gusts work through on Friday and drop once the front passes through Friday night. The gusts Friday night may be a bit snarky along the shorelines and in the mountains with the low-level jet passage. The snow that falls over most of the interior should be off the trees by then. I can’t rule out some isolated outages for the MidCoast and DownEast areas, or the mountains completely, but overall, not a big deal.

Expect Saturday to be a breezy day as the storm drags cold air in from the northwest, and gradually settle on Sunday.

Secondary low potential on the backside to watch

Friday 7 PM to Monday 1 AM – I am going to out in front of this and say this may be model fantasy, but the off and on ideas of a secondary low forming along the frontal boundary has been on again and off again like a light switch in a truck stop bathroom. I can’t completely rule the idea out as potential. The Canadian GEM model idea here depicts that potential, and there is some European model ensemble support for it. If the front slows down, it may be game on.

Stay tuned for more on what the rest of the weekend looks like once the main event passes through.

For those yearning, praying, and begging for snow…

Yes, it’s two weeks out, and I am not one to get too far ahead of the horse, but this has been an idea for a few days now. For snow lovers, this is the ideal set up you want. Omega block set up, cold air in place, deep trough over the south. Either this is either a very bad joke or we could be talking about a solid dumper statewide next week. Let’s see what happens.

Temperature outlook through Sunday

The temperature whiplash will likely be noticed more in the mountains and north as temperatures rise and crash Friday into Saturday. For those heading for the ski hills for the Martin Luther King, Jr. holiday, it should be a good one.

– Mike

Pine Tree Weather

Light snow north Monday into Tuesday, storm to watch late week

Before I get into the forecast, I want to say thank you for hanging in there with me as I navigated through crazy week with numerous appointments regarding medical, family, and weather-related matters, all of which worked out well. It was a “perfect storm” that it all ended up in the same week, but it’s finished, and I will get back into this on a more regular basis. Expect updates in the afternoon / early evening through Wednesday, with the rest of the week to be determined.

A bit of light snow on the way for the north Monday night

Monday 7 AM to Tuesday 1 PM – A week ago this looked like it could turn into something, but as the week progressed the idea fizzled out. Guidance has been in this annoying habit of phasing the polar jet with the sub-tropical jet in a progressive nature in the long term, but Lucy steals the football away from Charlie Brown on the kickoff and this ends up happening. Folks who follow in Newfoundland get the goods on this one. Seeing reports from folks up there, they have no snow on the Avalon Peninsula, which is amazing for early January, but not surprising given La Niña right now.

For northern areas, a few snow showers, an inch or two of fluff potential for the Allagash region, otherwise not much else from this one.

After this, the next focus turns to late week.

Storm potential for the second half of the week

While there are more questions than answers at this point, which is typical for this range, ensemble ideas of the European, GFS, and Canadian models agree with a potential snowmaker for the second half of the week. There is some uncertainty with Thursday as there are some discrepancies on ideas of whether a wave ahead of the main event gives the region a jumpstart on snowfall or not. Friday is where the agreement is good.

Part of the reason Thursday is a question mark is the upper-level energy that will drive the trough to the southeastern United States late week is over the north Pacific, southeast of Russia, southwest of Alaska, consequently away from weather balloon observation points. This energy source is not expected to make landfall in California until Tuesday morning. I expect some help from bits and pieces of energy that will iron out Thursday on Monday. The main event on track, precipitation type(s) and timing for Friday will be better known by Tuesday afternoon.

What I like about snow chances with this event is the potential blocking set up locking in the cold over the interior, combined with an anomalously high moisture pump from the south to feed into it. The forecast trough is expected to be deep and strong. What I don’t like for snow chances for the coast is that moisture pump coming in from the south/southeast over 43° ocean water. This sets up a potential junk storm situation (sleet, freezing rain) which could throw a wrench into this. I’d like to see the forecast high to north a bit further southeast and a bit stronger to feed more cold air in to cut down on the mixed precipitation aspect. With ideas trending cooler, that idea may happen, but for now it is wait and see.

Stay tuned!

Temperature outlook through Friday

The normal high and low temperature for Caribou for January 8th is 22° and 4°. For Portland, 33° and 17°. Expect temperatures to be slightly above normal overall through the week.

Thank you as always for your support!

You may not like the weather, but I hope you like what I do! Please hit the like button
on Twitter and Facebook, and share!

Stay updated, stay on alert, and stay safe!

– Mike

Pine Tree Weather

Unsettled midweek with mixed precipitation chances, winter to return Thursday

Happy New Year! A personal note to start off to say I have very busy week ahead to start the year with a couple of medical appointments, an American Meteorological Society committee meeting, and a couple of personal and family related matters to deal with that will interrupt my usual posting routine. I will do what I can, when I can, as best as I can as the week unfolds. Thankfully, there is nothing of widespread concern, but there are a couple of things to be aware of.

Temperatures feel more like April to start the year

Several records have been broken or tied between daily highs and warm overnight lows across northern areas along with Augusta in the south. The normal high and low for Caribou is 23° and 6°, and for Portland 34° and 18°. Even with the clouds and periodic shower activity over the north temperatures topped around 20° above normal there. With the sun out over the coastal plain, that also helped for the daily highs to be 20°+ there.

Looking back at history for Portland and Caribou, we’ve had a few warm first of January days…

The all-time high for January 1st in Portland was 56° set back in 1966. At last check, the Jetport reached 55° unofficially, so it appears that record will stay intact.

Caribou’s all-time record high of 48° for the day was set back in 1945, and that record won’t be challenged as the unofficial daily high there is 39°.

We’re not challenging and setting records as of yet as this anomalously warm air sticks around through Wednesday.

Upper-level outlook for the week

Sunday 7 PM to Friday 7 PM – The two main hotspots on the continent this week are the deep south and the west coast. The south deals severe weather on Monday and Tuesday thanks to a sharp upper-level trough digging there. The west coast gets hammered midweek thanks to a strong upper-level low that taps into an atmospheric river stretching from Japan all the way to California. As forecasters we apprehensively quip at times that droughts don’t end well, this is Exhibit A going on there. The Oriental Express is expected to bring major snow to the Sierras and an unrelenting fire hose of rain that will go on for days. You’ll be seeing some epic stories on this. Pray for them and the folks down south also as they will get lit up, too.

For us in the east a split flow sets up keeping the area warm and void of any significant systems. The cut-off upper-level low feature is where most of our activity comes from mid to late week. The ridge collapses enough to allow temperatures to fall back to average from Thursday onward.

A chance for showers and mixed precipitation
Tuesday to Friday

Tuesday 7 AM to Wednesday 10 AM – The ridge begins to collapse and disturbances from the south work along it. For the first wave of activity, interior areas should be on alert for sleet and freezing rain potential Tuesday afternoon into the evening, along with some light snow potential for the far north. Areas south of the foothills appear to stay warm enough for rain showers as the upper ridge holds temperatures above freezing there.

If you live and/or travel in the foothills, mountains, and north, know that the salt has washed off the roads and watch the thermometer closely for potential slick spots. There is roughly ¼-½” of liquid involved here that will land on terra firma in some form, whether frozen, about to freeze, or not depending on how the thermals set up.

Wednesday 10 AM to Friday 1 AM – The forecast for this time period has been a challenge due to timing of the second system and how high pressure to the north impacts the upper-low to the south, and Maine is in the crosshairs of it. It’s too early to figure out how much of what type of precipitation and where at this point. The amount of liquid involved is similar to the previous wave at ¼-½”. The area of low pressure is pretty flat, and these types of systems where the atmosphere is constipated thermodynamically are a tough call. Expect a junk storm (snow, sleet, freezing rain) at this point starting Wednesday night into Thursday that may bring some travel impacts and could get the salt trucks out.

Expect a temperature whiplash back to reality to hit Thursday, as you will see below.

Keep yourselves updated!

Temperature outlook through Friday

– Mike

Pine Tree Weather

New Years Weekend update

Many thanks to all who have chipped in

Just a quick update here as the Friday posts are the least read of any I put out during the week unless there is something big going on. I want to say thank you for those that stepped up with financial contributions as it looks like I am going to make it. Any other funds that continue to come will go into savings as I need to get a new laptop and work to set myself up for video. Thank you so much, I really appreciate it, and it means the world to me!

New Years Eve plans look damp

No real changes in ideas here. I am concerned about the midnight observances since there are many scheduled around the state, and they could be damp. Temperatures are likely to be in the 40s and 50s for the festivities, which is 20-30° above normal at that time, so there is that. The forecast did look drier along the coast Friday morning, but afternoon ideas see some backfilling and enhancement of rain activity. Plan on showers if you are going out to celebrate.

If there are any changes, I will post an update on Facebook and link it on Twitter.

Next system to watch midweek

Tuesday 7 AM to Friday 1 AM – For now, this is for a point of reference that there is a chance for precipitation in some form Tuesday night through early Friday. The ridge that brings in the warm air begins to collapse. I am not confident in the details of what deterministic ideas are showing at this point. Just know that at this point that it could be potentially messy over the interior, and the coast needs to pay attention.

Temperature outlook through Wednesday

– Mike

Pine Tree Weather

Warmer and wetter conditions on the way for New Years weekend

Deep cold to the north cut off for a while

The good news is the impact on the heat bill takes a breather after the cold stretch that settled in after the Grinch storm. The bad news for snow lovers is that it will come at your expense. The snow pack is expected to go down. The mountains and north are likely to lose some, but I don’t expect this warm pattern to completely wipe out what is on the ground there. Areas in the foothills down to the patchy snow that is left along the coast are likely going to see most of what is left gone by the time the pattern flips on Thursday of next week.

Thursday 7 PM to Tuesday 7 PM – A couple things going on in this loop of the 500mb (steering level at ~18,300 ft) and mean sea level pressure. The sequence of these charts show what is going on aloft and at the surface. Old Man Winter is winking at us letting us know he’s still around but is hanging out for the most part at above 30°N latitude. A pattern resembling more of early October or April with temperatures more like November is the trend to end the year and start the new one. Starting next week, there are likely to be some record warm lows and a chance to make a run at warm highs. The storm that passes through on Sunday cools us down a touch briefly before the warmest air of the stretch builds in for midweek. An inside runner approaching the Great Lakes is the next system to monitor heading into Wednesday, and then temperatures are expected to fall back to around normal late week.

Strong wind events hit recent high mark

With the recent windstorms that have impacted the region, I decided to do some digging and look at recent data since 2005 which focuses on the number of High Wind Warnings and Wind Advisories that have been called by our National Weather Service offices in Gray and Caribou. While we didn’t hit the high point of 2010, it is important to note that since 2015, the number has been trending upward.

The definition of a High Wind Warning is for high winds excluding those directly associated with severe local storms, hurricanes, and winter storms for a) sustained wind speeds of 40 mph or greater lasting for 1 hour or longer, or b) winds of 58 mph or greater for any duration, in case you are curious. These are the ones where numerous to widespread power outages are expected. In 2022, the state had 11 of those issued, a tie for 4th since 2005.

A Wind Advisory is issued for winds excluding those directly associated with severe local storms, tropical cyclones, and winter storms for a) sustained wind speeds of 31-39 mph lasting for 1 hour or longer; or b) wind gusts of 46-57 mph for any duration. These are the ones where isolated to spotty power outages are possible. In 2022, the state had 30 of those issued. Since some of the High Wind Warnings were also combined with Wind Advisories, it’s not correct to think we had 41 different wind events, even though it may have seemed that way. It is the highest number combined since 2015. I am not one to point blame on any one specific reason as to why this going on, other than to say it is going on. While it could be easy to point fingers at how fragile the power grid is, there is numbers to point out that we are getting hit with strong wind events more frequently.

I am not trying to incite any sort of political or scientific riot here. That is not my thing and I avoid it at all cost. If you want to take the information elsewhere for that debate, that is up to you, just not on my media pages, please, as I will not tolerate it. The bottom line here is now that you’ve seen the numbers, you know that it is happening more often, so it is important to keep your storm supplies up to snuff and pay attention to the forecast. We’ll get another one before too long as we are into the stormy and windy time of the year through spring, and it is important to be prepared ahead of time.

Losing some snow pack, getting some rain this weekend

Since I tend to be more of a glass half full guy and I’ll just say this could be worse. This will help clean up the ice build up in areas that isn’t good from the Grinch Storm. Another upside here, is the snow melt happens ahead of the rain on the way, and with what rain comes, flooding concerns appear very low at this point. I can’t rule out a few localized spots where there may be ice jams, but nothing major here.

Saturday 7 AM to Monday 4 AM – The idea of a backside plowable snow that I thought might happen over the mountains and north appears unlikely. Salt & sanding may be required as the back edge passes through Sunday afternoon for up country, but that should be about it.

Showers break out over the mountains and north on Saturday, become more numerous heading into Sunday before clearing out from west to east Sunday night. If you are out on the roads Saturday night, expect areas of fog which could be locally dense, especially in areas with a snow pack.

Hopefully folks who imbibe to ring in the new year will find a spot and stay there, and not get behind the wheel. It is Amateur Night, however.

Ideas on rainfall have teetered here and there, but far eastern areas from Van Buren south to Machias are likely to see the most liquid from this. The storm starts off rather flat before intensifying on it’s way into the Canadian Maritimes, which may help the western mountains with lower end rainfall. Way Down East has the best chance to pick up an inch.

The higher elevations could see some pockets of freezing rain and/or drizzle Sunday morning as colder air filters in, so there could be some slick spots.

Thankfully, not much concern for wind with this, but it will pick up on the backside Sunday night into early Monday with gusts behaving themselves in the 20s, with 30s possible for the mountains.

We’ll cool down slightly on Monday before the ridge moves in midweek.

$300 needed to make the 2023 budget…
Please help me get to the finish line!

Temperature outlook through Tuesday

– Mike

Pine Tree Weather

Light snow for at times through Thursday, warm up on the way for New Years weekend

Before I get into the update, I hope everyone made it through the storm and was able to enjoy the holiday as best as you could. Power outages topped 250,000+ which was unfortunate, but not a surprise. The damage to the coastline was substantial in areas. Driving around western Maine over Christmas I could see first hand the tree damage, along with the flooding and the freeze up that came after. I saw power crews getting rest and food at several hotels along Route 26. As they walked in to where my family and I stayed to get their room keys, they were visibly tired, cold, and hungry. They worked hard to get as many folks online as quickly as possible for the holiday. A hat tip is in order to each of them, who no doubt would have rather been with their families.

Four days after storm at 3 PM Tuesday, 5,127 are still without power across Maine, most in Hancock County at 2,860 followed by York at 1,249. Only county not reporting an outage out of the 16 was Somerset. Hopefully the rest of the outages are plugged back as soon as possible.

Thankfully after the 1-2 punch over the past two weeks, no major storms are foreseen anytime soon.

Warmer times ahead

The recent cool down that came in behind the Grinch Storm is about leave the area and yield to a warmer trend going into January. The idea all along here is that winter (December-January-February) was to be front loaded with cold before above normal temperatures returned. It didn’t quite work out that way. We’ve had some cool shots periodically, but reporting observation stations to the north and south are going to finish above normal. January to this point appears warm. Meteorological voodoo says February may be the same way. It’s like 2020 all over again with the moderate La Niña in place. We won’t be running to the coffee shop in flip-flops, mind you, but where it may be noticed the most is in thickness of the ice in the lakes and ponds, as well as precipitation type.

For those with the itch to get out on the frozen pond for opening day of ice fishing, know what you are getting into. The blessing of the rain is most bodies of water are sheer ice with no snow. My observations from the holiday showed some ponds iced well, others not so much. The currents have kept some parts wide open due to the high water level and runoff. The warm up and potential rain on Sunday does not bode well for opening day. As a former ice fisherman, I feel your pain. Cleats and rain gear. Insert a choice four-letter word here.

Waves to bring some snow for the interior

Tuesday 7 PM to Friday 1 AM – Disturbances riding along the approaching upper-level ridge are expected to bring areas of snow showers to the western mountains on up into the north for Wednesday into Thursday.

The far north is expected to get the most out of this with 4-6″ for the rooftop (Caribou, Frenchville, Allagash) 2-4″ for Masardis and Mars Hill, 1-2″ for Houlton, Greenville and Jackman and the western mountains through Thursday. Fryeburg, Rumford, Farmington, Augusta, Waterville, Bangor, the MidCoast around Rockland and DownEast areas may pick up a dusting to an inch on Wednesday. I am not expecting any widespread travel issues, but a few slick spots are possible.

A soggy New Years weekend

Friday 1 AM to Monday 1 PM – I am showing the ensemble idea here because I do not completely trust the deterministic output that I have seen with this. It all looks like rain, but it may not be to start off as liquid over the interior on Saturday New Years Eve into Sunday New Years Day. There could be a mix of snow, sleet and freezing rain for a time, and northern areas have the best chance to keep frozen precipitation a bit longer, thanks to a weak area of high pressure near St. James Bay. I do think most, if not all areas warm up for liquid before this ends late Sunday into early Monday.

The good news for ski country is the model ideas for liquid aren’t crazy with ¼ – ¾” the general rule. It’s not what you want, but far from the fire hose that hit with the Grinch Storm.

Stay tuned for fine tuning on this.

If you appreciate what I do,
please financially support what I do

Temperature outlook through New Years Day

– Mike

Pine Tree Weather

Grinch storm to bring power outages and flooding to Maine Friday

Here we go

Hopefully you are all prepared and ready to go. Watching other forecasters in other areas that will be dealing with impacts are saying the same things, power outages, flooding on land and sea, all with a flash freeze chaser at the end. Several hundred thousand people (maybe a million with Canada included?) are going to lose power in the areas affected. I am still running with the idea of 300,000 dark in Maine, which I hope would be the biggest bust forecast in my 11 years of doing this. I am cheering for myself to be wrong.

It’s both comical and scary to see even the model ideas look like the Grinch as I have been tracking it all week. Just look at it… a gnarly, sinister one-eyed Grinch.

Moving on…

The wind she’s gonna blow

No changes in my thinking here. Most of the state is under High Wind Warning, the western foothills under a Wind Advisory. Just because the foothills is under a Wind Advisory, if you live there, please don’t think you are going to escape and have the mentality “Oh, it ain’t going to be that bad!” You aren’t off the snide here. An inversion may cap it off for a while, but those areas will see some hefty gusts when the front moves through, and deal with power outages as well.

The timing of the wind:

Increases over the south and west Thursday 10 PM, MidCoast 11 PM, Bangor / DownEast Midnight, North by 6-7 AM Friday.

Gusts increase 1-2 AM south and west, 2-3 AM MidCoast, 3-4 AM Bangor / DownEast, north 10 AM.

High end gusts arrive 5 AM south and west, by 6 AM MidCoast, 7 AM Bangor / DownEast, Noon for the north.

High end gusts decrease 2-3 PM south and west, 3-5 PM MidCoast / Bangor / Bar Harbor, DownEast and north 5-8 PM.

The breeze remains stiff with gusts 30-45 mph for the coast, mountains and north overnight, gradually diminishes over the coastal plain & Bangor with gusts 25-35 mph into Saturday morning. Breezy continues at some velocity through Monday.

If you still have power on Saturday morning, you are in business. Help out some other poor chaps that are in the dark and may need a coffee and a place to thaw out.

A touch of winter to start off

A winter weather advisory is posted for the mountains and north as a precursor to the rain on the way.

Ski country, you are cheering for this. I can’t say this will save your blades from abuse on Saturday, but it can’t hurt to have some of the fresh snow absorb some of the rain on the way.

As warm air moves in from the south/southeast, cold air damming from an area of high pressure to the northeast is expected to intrude at the low level and set up the potential for a period of freezing rain perhaps mixed with some sleet. Not sure if Bangor completely escapes or not, so keep that in mind and watch you car thermometer. Anything less than 37° on the car thermometer could mean 32° or less on the road surface.

Timing of precipitation

5 AM Friday – Greenville, Bangor, and Bar Harbor south and west are seeing either snow, sleet, freezing rain or rain. For you early birds that are on the road early, allow for extra time and expect this not to be completely correct, especially in the foothills, Waterville, Augusta, Fryeburg and perhaps Lewiston. This idea may be a bit warm, so freezing rain, sleet and snow may be going on there. The closer to the coast, the wetter it will get.

Friday Noon – By this point, if the mountains have not flipped to rain, they will be rather soon. Millinocket on up into Caribou maybe dealing with junk storm conditions (sleet, snow, freezing rain). The fire hose and free car wash may going on Bangor up towards Greenville over to Eastport. Southwestern areas, after going through all of that in the morning, will see more on the way.

Friday 3 PM – This is where flash flooding could ramp up over the west as the power wash cranks on high. Thunderstorms are a distinct possibility in the afternoon. Not only is there the heavy rain threat, but also a downdraft wind threat as the low-level jet screams at 90-100 mph at 3,000 feet. Precipitation for all but the Allagash area may be flipping to rain at this point.

Friday 3 PM to Saturday Midnight – I specifically looped this part to note the frontal passage. I am concerned that with the extremely strong frontal boundary that there may be a squall line ahead of it with damaging wind, along with snow squalls on the back side that could make evening and overnight driving dangerous with reduced visibilities, white out conditions, and ice from the freeze up. If you are driving around at any time during this time, you really need to pay attention to what is going on. The situation can flip in blink. This is no joke here, and may be the most dangerous point from a driving perspective in the storm.

The temps rise, then the freeze up

Friday Midnight to Saturday 7 AM – Here’s a 30-hour loop of the rise to spring then the fall into the arctic abyss. I am seeing reports to temperature falling 20-30° in 5 minutes with this front. This has flash freeze written all over it. With all of the water and flooding from the rain, this is the final insult to be delivered from the storm. It may make you want to burn your Trans-Siberian Orchestra records if you step outside and end up on the ground. You need to keep the salt and sand handy here. This is going freeze about as fast as a Zamboni resurfacing an ice rink.

Onto the hydration…

Rain and interior flooding

Minuscule changes here from the Weather Prediction Center from their ideas I have shared here over the past three days. Mentioned at length in yesterday’s post about the snowpack ripening with the increase of dewpoints above freezing. It’s looks like roughly a 12-hour span of that, and that is where the snowpack gets eaten up south and east of the mountains. This is the main concern for the flooding. Northern areas are likely to see low amounts of liquid, so there is no concerns for flooding issues there.

Of all the rivers south of the mountains I could get data for, this is the two areas I see with the greatest potential to flood. Water Street in Hallowell is going to be a disaster. The peak time of flooding appears to be around noon on Saturday when the temperature will be 14°. With no warm up to speak of to melt the horrific mess that is going to create until late next week, this is the place that will get the worst of it.

The Swift River in Roxbury floods in the summer during a thunderstorm, so it’s just another day there. The other river to watch will be the Saco in Conway / Fryeburg.

Watch out for flash flooding and potential for washouts.

The coastal flooding idea is getting worse

For those along the shorelines, this is a very concerning situation here. Towns with beaches are already blocking of roadways in anticipation of flooding. Astronomical high tides, freshwater runoff from the snowmelt, storm surge in the 2-4′ range and the timing of the wind moving closer to the high water mark all adds up into potential for moderate to major coastal flooding. As you can see in the graphic, forecast high water in Portland is expected at 13.8′. If that verifies, that would put it 3rd all-time for recorded height. Some ideas put it higher than that, coming very close to an all time record. It will be wait and see on what happens there.

Waves in 15-20′ range will hammer the coast Friday and Friday night and slowly settle down Saturday into Sunday. Some inundation is likely. For those that live along the shores need to pay attention to what is going on and be prepared to evacuate if told to do so.

Storm coverage Friday is on Twitter.

Godspeed.

If you appreciate what I do,
please financially support what I do

– Mike

Pine Tree Weather

A storm that will be remembered

Every now and then we get a storm that is placed in our memory banks as one to remember. This is one that is poised to do that. I am not one to use the term “historic” loosely. I think I have only used that term a handful of times in the past 11 years. Whether it will get that tag put on it or not, only the results of the storm will dictate that. I am confident that this one won’t be easily forgotten, and will be discussed around holiday gatherings for a number of years.

Someone came up with the idea of “The Grinch Storm” and has spun around the Twittersphere and I think it fits the bill. I am not going to call it whatever the other major weather TV network is calling it, because I don’t get into that sort of thing. For a high impact weather event this close to Christmas that will likely spoil many parties, it’s perfect.

It’s a major storm

Thursday 7 PM to Saturday 1 AM – Let’s talk about fact and fiction here. FACT: this is a rapidly developing synoptic storm that will go through bombogenesis (pressure drop of 30mb or more in 24 hours). FICTION: This has the same intensity as a CAT2 hurricane. I don’t get why some want to do that sort of thing when it isn’t the same storm core species other than to scare people.

Let’s go with the FACT here. It’s shaping up to be a big bomb, no question. Between the high to the west and the predicted pressure of the storm, there could be some pressure records established between the two. Any time a storm drops 35mb in roughly 18-20 hours, it’s not good. The Siberian Express of cold slamming into a mild upper ridge brings blizzards, heavy rain, big wind, and a whole lot of work and headaches to recover from.

The timing of precipitation appears to begin over the south and west in the wee hours of Friday morning, and end early evening. For eastern areas, expect it to start around sunrise and end by mid-evening. For the north, mid to late morning to start and around midnight – 1 AM Saturday to end, outside of snow shower that may persist in logging country until Saturday morning.

The big story is the wind

The graphic here spells it all out. Timing of the wind in conjunction with precipitation for beginning and end. The word on the street is a power company is preparing for six figure power outages (200,000+). Knowing there is another power company with a slightly smaller account number in an area that is likely to get hit the worst, so tack on another 100,000 as a conservative estimate and bring the idea up to 300,000ish is my over / under for now. I am not a weather risk manager by any stretch, but knowing full well what the October 2017 storm did with similar dynamics, that is what potentially see here. Restoration efforts will be in sub-freezing temperatures through Christmas as temperatures crash behind the front, and hopefully most folks are back on by New Years, and it should warm up by then.

For those that manage to keep lights on through most of it will have one final hurdle to deal with as the front itself comes through at the end, and expect it to have temper. Don’t be surprised if severe thunderstorm warnings get handed out like candy canes at the local Christmas fair as damaging downdraft winds occur. If you manage to get through all of that and stay plugged in come Saturday morning, you should be all set.

Just a friendly reminder here to use your generator safely in a well-ventilated area. Make sure you have plenty of fuel to operate it as well in case roads are blocked with trees.

Really.

Precipitation ideas roughly the same

With the general idea of the storm tracking to the east a bit more brings more snow to logging and moose country, and the higher elevations of the ski hills. The threat for some light snow and some freezing rain is distinct possibility for the coastal plain and the foothills on up into the east side of The County. It all changes to rain with the possible exception of the Allagash region that sees the lowest chance for liquid.

If anyone has a few flatbed trailers and tractors around to load up the ski hills in western areas and take them north to avoid the rain and the melting of snow, I suggest you get on the stick and do it now. Times a wastin’.

Thursday 7 PM to Saturday 7 AM – A look at the rise and fall of dewpoint temperatures here. Where the dew points rise above freezing with the strong southeast wind, which is predicted to be for most of the state, expect the snow to ripen and being to melt, with help from the slug of rain on the way. The good news is the dew points crash like a high speed train into a wall to slam the brakes on the melting, but not after about 12-hours or so of loss.

The White Christmas for the coast is all but gone and the ski mountains do take a hit, but they may not lose all they have achieved recently.

With the southeast flow, rain gets blasted into the mountains where the highest amounts are expected. The snowpack ripens, melts and releases 1-3″ of additional water with the rain and warm dewpoints and that sets up flooding for brooks, streams, rivers, roadways, and basements.

Flood watches have been posted across western, eastern and southern areas and for good reason. Expect Route 201 in Hallowell to become part of the Kennebec River as we head into Christmas. This is going to be brutal to have flooding with temperatures below freezing as it happens. While there is little ice on the rivers to be concerned for jam issues, it’s likely to be a horrific mess there and any other area of flooding that happens, and expect many areas to flood.

Then there is the coastal impacts

The marine forecast for Penobscot Bay south and Penobscot Bay north paint the picture of seas upwards of 22 feet by Friday night. With astronomical high tides in play along with roughly 4 feet of storm surge brings moderate coastal flooding, splash-over, some localized inundation, and beach erosion from the battering waves. Even after the storm passes, the ocean will be angry until Sunday night.

The shorelines are all under a Coastal Flood Watch due to the predicted mayhem, with moderate flooding already predicted for Portland Friday just before noon.

The high tides through Christmas are ones to watch as the ocean continues to settle from the irritability caused by the atmospheric eruption. Splash-over and minor flooding may continue through the holiday.

Closing thoughts

I may sound a bit aloof here but the message is clear. The bottom line here is this going to be a bad storm at a bad time. It is likely to cause disruption, disappointment, frustration, anger, anxiety, and depression for some. We’re Mainers. We’re tough. We come together, and we’ll get through it. Check on your neighbors, and touch base with your friends. Help out if you can. Have baked goods to give to the line workers and hot coffee & cocoa for them if you have a generator to make it. If you can reschedule your holiday, do it just in case. If you can’t, do the best you can with what you have.

This will be a storm that will be remembered for a long time, hopefully for not was lost, but for how we as Mainers rallied together to get through it, by helping one another.

Be safe, stay updated on the bulletins and forecasts from NWS. I will do my best to get you through Friday, if I don’t lose power or internet.

Don’t let the Grinch steal the joy and the spirit of the holiday for what it was meant to be.

Funding deficit for 2023 … $750

– Mike

Pine Tree Weather

Watching the cold minion to the north

A bit of everything on the way for Sunday

Statewide snow Monday night into Tuesday morning

About the cold late week

Temperature outlook through Thursday

Three-hour steps from midnight to noon Thursday

Most of the state to get a good dump of snow, but…

Timing

Precipitation type / wind

Outlook through the weekend

Finally, some better agreement

Fast and flat, with a bit of fun

Timing

Snow and wind

Coastal hugger potential for Wednesday into Thursday

The next one

Temperature outlook through Wednesday

The train is rolling

Friday’s storm

Snowfall amounts

Monday could be a corker

Temperature outlook through Monday

A break from the junk storms… for now

Light snow for northern areas, ​isolated spotty mix or rain south for Wednesday

Snow on the way Thursday night into Friday

The train keeps rolling

Temperature outlook through Sunday

This is a strong storm

Timing

Precipitation amounts, impacts

Quick thoughts on Friday’s potential

Temperature outlook through Friday

The junk storms continue to roll

Breaking it all down

The general idea through Monday… subject to change

Potential for a light mixed bag event for eastern areas Saturday

Another close shave for Sunday

Monday may see more widespread precipitation

Temperature outlook through Wednesday

Plan on slick travel starting Thursday

Timing, precipitation type, and wind

Temperature and outlook through Monday

But first, a bit of winter

As far as inside runner storms go, this isn’t bad

Secondary low potential on the backside to watch

For those yearning, praying, and begging for snow…

Temperature outlook through Sunday

A bit of light snow on the way for the north Monday night

Storm potential for the second half of the week

Temperature outlook through Friday

Temperatures feel more like April to start the year

Upper-level outlook for the week

A chance for showers and mixed precipitation Tuesday to Friday

Temperature outlook through Friday

Many thanks to all who have chipped in

New Years Eve plans look damp

Next system to watch midweek

Temperature outlook through Wednesday

Deep cold to the north cut off for a while

Strong wind events hit recent high mark

Losing some snow pack, getting some rain this weekend

$300 needed to make the 2023 budget…Please help me get to the finish line!

Temperature outlook through Tuesday

Warmer times ahead

Waves to bring some snow for the interior

A soggy New Years weekend

If you appreciate what I do,please financially support what I do

Temperature outlook through New Years Day

Here we go

The wind she’s gonna blow

A touch of winter to start off

Timing of precipitation

The temps rise, then the freeze up

Rain and interior flooding

The coastal flooding idea is getting worse

If you appreciate what I do, please financially support what I do

It’s a major storm

The big story is the wind

Precipitation ideas roughly the same

Then there is the coastal impacts

Light snow for northern areas,
isolated spotty mix or rain south for Wednesday

Potential for a light mixed bag event
for eastern areas Saturday

A chance for showers and mixed precipitation
Tuesday to Friday

$300 needed to make the 2023 budget…
Please help me get to the finish line!

If you appreciate what I do,
please financially support what I do

If you appreciate what I do,
please financially support what I do